NFL Football Betting

Adrian Peterson's potential exit plans from Vikings took hit in losing appeal
2014-12-13

Peterson's appeal appeared dead shortly after arbiter Harold Henderson ordered the league and NFL Players Association to find a way to resolve Peterson's appeal without Henderson playing the final judge and jury. But the NFL never reached out to strike a resolution, a source familiar with the proceedings told Yahoo Sports. Instead, the source said, the league stood pat, confident Henderson (a former NFL executive) would rule in its favor, which seemed likely, considering Henderson was appointed by league commissioner Roger Goodell who was, in effect, Henderson's boss when he worked for the NFL.
That led us to Friday, with Peterson shut down for the rest of the season, and the NFL surely happy to have bounced back after having a suspension overturned against former Baltimore Raven Ray Rice. Meanwhile, the NFLPA is grousing, as expected: "The NFLPA expected this outcome, given the hearing officer's relationship and financial ties to the NFL."

But within all of this is a semi-win for the Vikings because all of this leads to a higher likelihood of Peterson being on the roster in 2015 if that's what the team actually wants. It's a welcome timeout for anyone in the franchise who bristled at the thought of dealing with further sponsorship fallout if Peterson were to play this year. It also limits Peterson's options should he desire a trade.

When this whole suspension appeal started, Peterson and his backers had simple goals: get the suspension reduced to as few games as possible; get the financial hit lessened as much as possible; and most important, get Peterson reinstated as quickly as possible because a suspension extending to April limits the market for Peterson's services.

If the running back had decided he wanted out and that's still up in the air having to wait until the midway point of the offseason allows teams to fulfill their needs at his position. It also allows them to take a longer look at Peterson without worry that another franchise will swoop in and steal him. And the kicker it leaves a cliffhanger of sorts, since nobody knows if the league will reinstate Peterson in April.

What happens now? Maybe Peterson will file a lawsuit against the NFL. Maybe he'll stand pat and take his chances after April. Or maybe he'll decide he wants to be a Minnesota Viking in 2015, and work to resolve any lingering issues with the franchise and its faithful.

According to league sources, it's not that Peterson doesn't want to play for his coaches or teammates quite the contrary. But the running back and his family are now questioning whether the state and city he plays in can still stand behind him, following an outpouring of fan and media negativity surrounding his personal life.

Once those emotions are resolved, if Peterson wants a trade he is going to push the issue and then wait a long four months, maybe longer. That gives the Vikings this upper hand: If they want to deal him, those conversations can be held now and consummated later.

But if Minnesota wants to keep Peterson, it can simply tell him no trade will happen, tune out other teams, and then let his options wither away until there is no compelling offer to be had when he's reinstated.

Either way, his future is in a tough spot now. Peterson's loss Friday was more than just lost games and lost wages. In a way, his career lost freedom going forward, too. And the ramifications of that could stretch far longer than April.




NFL Week 2 Picks: Can the Jets keep it going against the Patriots?
2013-09-11

And rookie quarterback Geno Smith NFL Betting Lines seized that opportunity in his debut, completing 24 of 38 for 256 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Did that performance save Rex Ryan's job? Probably not, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. In a league where "one game at a time" is the mantra, the Jets are only concerned about the Patriots, whom they'll face Thursday night.

Modesty has replaced bluster for Ryan, who conceded that the Pats "are the ones you clearly have to beat" in the division. And this comes after New England struggled against Buffalo in the opener, a game in which Brady completed just 56 percent of his throws and the Pats needed a last-second field goal to win.

The Jets, meanwhile, held Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman to 48 percent passing, and running back Doug Martin managed just 2.7 yards per carry. On Thursday, New England will be without its top back, Shane Vereen (101 rushing yards vs. the Bills), who underwent wrist surgery earlier this week.
But if New York is going to have a chance, they'll need to slow Brady, something Ryan had success doing early in his career. He won three of his first five matchups against Bill Belichick, but in the four games since, the Jets are 0-4, losing by an average of 16 points. It helps to have Muhammed Wilkerson up front and Antonio Cromartie on the back end, but Ryan will need to out-scheme Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
I don't think this system requires (a lot of star) players, Jets linebacker Demario Davis said of Ryan's defense (via the New York Daily News). I think this defense is going to be great if people just go out and execute their job. We've got more than enough guys at each position to go out and execute their jobs. If we can do that, I think we're going to be okay.
And it will be the defense -- not Geno Smith or Bilal Powell or Santonio Holmes -- that determines if the Jets will leave Foxborough 2-0 and atop the AFC East. We think the Jets will keep the score close (they'll cover +13.5), but ultimately, Brady will be too much down the stretch.
Other Week 2 games
Dallas over KANSAS CITY: Alex Smith and Andy Reid had the Chiefs looking like a playoff team in the opener, except that blowing out a hapless Jaguars outfit doesn't really tell us much other than Kansas City got a fifth preseason game. We'll know more this week, when the Chiefs host the Cowboys, who are fresh off a victory over the Giants. Tony Romo was sharp in the win, although he and wideout Dez Bryant enter this game nursing injuries. But an early season win on the road could give the Cowboys the confidence to consistently beat better teams, something that will come in handy if this group hopes to finally make it back to the playoffs.
PHILADELPHIA over San Diego: We have seen the future and it is Chip Kelly's high-powered college offense. We're still skeptical it can work over an entire NFL season (Michael Vick's health and LeSean McCoy's durability are chief concerns), but the debut performance against the Redskins was pretty impressive. The Chargers may not be as awful as we thought, but their knack for losing eminently winnable games has carried over from previous seasons, and we don't expect that to suddenly change on Sunday.
GREEN BAY over Washington: Expect to hear a lot this week about "These are must-win games!", never mind that the season has four months to go. Still, if the Redskins fall to the Packers (and we think they will) and Robert Griffin III struggles in the process, brace yourselves because we're going to be bombarded with calls for Kirk Cousins to replace him. Welcome to football in the nation's capital! We have a feeling things are going to get worse in DC before they get better.
NEW YORK GIANTS over Denver: Yep, it's another Manning Bowl, the biggest game of the season until ... next week. The Broncos are slight favorites on the road (-3.5), but Vegas is figuring bettors will remember Peyton Manning's jaw-dropping second-half effort against the Ravens while conveniently forgetting that he was average over the first 30 minutes. It'll be important for the Giants' front four to pressure Manning in much the same way they got after Tom Brady in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI, and we expect Eli Manning to have success against a Von Miller-less defense and a banged-up Broncos secondary.


Mike Mayock sees no more than one QB in first round
2013-04-25

NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock doesn't think so. If the Cleveland Browns stay away from the position at sixth overall, Mayock is having problems "finding room for a quarterback" before the Jacksonville Jaguars open the second round with the 33rd pick.

"I don't think there's going to be more than one quarterback taken in the first round, which is not what I thought three months ago," Mayock said Monday on NFL Network. "I think there's still going to be some activity at the back end of that first round, but most of the activity for quarterbacks this year? I think second and third rounds."

Regardless of what the Browns do, the door will be wide open for a QB-needy team to trade into the back end of the first round. Mayock cited the New England Patriots (currently without a pick in Rounds 4, 5 and 6) as an ideal candidate. The Atlanta Falcons (No. 30 overall) and Baltimore Ravens (No. 32) also are options if their initial targets already are off the board.

Which team will seize on the opportunity to take the first quarterback off the board? The intrigue builds.


March Madness Bracket
2015-02-15

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NFL: Double-digit dogs continue to cash
2010-11-17

Last week, we once again suggested playing against favorites of 10 points or more, even if it meant backing a Dallas team that had lost five straight (SU and ATS) and was 1-7 on the year (both SU and ATS). With their 33-20 victory over the New York Giants, Dallas easily covered the point spread and obviously won the game outright.
This marked the fourth straight double-digit ‘dog to cover the spread, and the second of that group to also win their game outright (Cleveland over New Orleans in Week 7). For the season, underdogs of 10 points or more are now a money-making 9-4 ATS (69%).
After checking the NFL Week 11 point spreads at Sportsbook.com, there are currently three double-digit dogs. Here are the matchups, along with some supporting football betting trends.
Baltimore at Carolina (+10)
Play On - Home teams (Carolina) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (24-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.3%, +21.8 units. Rating = 4*).
Seattle (+11.5) at New Orleans
Play On - Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Seattle) - off an upset win as a road underdog. (34-11 since 1983.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 2*).
Denver (+10) at San Diego
Play Against - Home favorites (San Diego) - excellent passing team (>=265 PY/game) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/game), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. (33-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*).
Also note that Baltimore and New Orleans are both 0-2 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.
Going into Week 9, a developing trend was unearthed that had yet to be defeated. Through the first eight weeks of the season, teams that had lost five or more consecutive games straight up were 4-0 ATS in their next game. This trend remains unbeaten after both Cincinnati and Dallas beat the spread in Week 10 after having lost five straight SU. Buffalo pushed each of the last two weeks as losers of seven and eight straight SU, but did finally earn its first outright victory in Week 10.
For the season, teams riding losing streaks of five or more SU are now 6-0 ATS and 4-4 SU. Cincinnati will put this unbeaten record to the test once again in Week 11 when it attempts to snap its six-game SU losing streak. The Bengals play at home against Buffalo.
To bet on this weeks double-digit dogs or to simply check the NFL Week 11 betting odds, head over to Sportsbook.com now.


Football betting: AFC South/West Regular Season Wins Predictions
2010-08-24

Over under lines supplied by www.sportsbook.com the home of NFL betting.

The Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 11) have been the most consistent team in the NFL over the last several years. In each of the last seven seasons, Indy has won 12 or more games in the regular season. With MVP quarterback Peyton Manning showing no signs of slowing down, the Colts should continue to be an elite team as a new decade begins. While the offense gets most of the headlines for the club, the defense has ranked in the top 8 in the NFL in scoring defense in four of the last five years. The schedule will have some challenges but the Colts will only have to face two playoff squads from 2009 on the road. Indianapolis goes over the football betting number with another big regular season.

After breaking through for the first winning season in the history of the franchise in 2009, the Houston Texans (O/U: 8) will try to take the next step with a postseason bid in 2010. While the club's passing game is one of the NFL's best, the offense could use some better production on the ground. The defense (13th in NFL in total defense in 2009) has gradually improved in recent years. Houston produces another winning campaign to go over the total.

It was a tale of two seasons for the Tennessee Titans (O/U: 8) in 2009. After an 0-6 start, the club went 8-2 the rest of the way. Running back Chris Johnson will once again be a difference maker after rushing for over 2,000 yards in 2009 but the Titans playoff hopes in 2010 will be determined by the performance of quarterback Vince Young. A defense that struggled last year has lost some key veterans. Tennessee comes up short of the .500 mark for an under.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 7) appear to be the weak link in the AFC South. The club has managed only 12 wins over the last two seasons. With the exception of dynamic running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags don't have any other impact performers on either side of the ball. In a deep division, Jacksonville is overmatched to yield an under.

In the AFC West, the San Diego Chargers (O/U: 11) are an overwhelming football betting favorite to win the division title for a fifth straight year. The club has undergone a bit of a transition from 2009. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie are now with the New York Jets. In the preseason, the Chargers are dealing with a couple of key holdouts. Still, there is plenty of talent to work with in San Diego. Quarterback Phillip Rivers is one of the best signal-callers in the league. The defense will be looking for some more consistency. A reasonable schedule should enable the Chargers to go over with at least 11 victories.

In each of the last two seasons, the Denver Broncos (O/U: 7) have started quickly before fading in the second half of the year. While the team just missed the postseason a year ago, expectations aren't too high in 2010. A couple of key personnel losses will make it difficult for the Broncos to challenge for the playoffs again this season. Star wide receiver Brandon Marshall is now with the Miami Dolphins. On defense, linebacker Elvis Dumervil (led NFL with 17 sacks in 2009) is expected to miss most of the season due to injury. Denver takes a step back in 2010 for an under.

The Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 6.5) have struggled to a 10-38 record since 2007. However, the club is on the right track under second-year head coach Todd Haley. With a backfield combo of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, Kansas City should have one of the top running back duos in the league in 2010. The defense has a long way to go but the unit should be better this year. In a mediocre division beyond San Diego, the Chiefs manage at least seven wins for an over.

In each of the last seven years, the Oakland Raiders (O/U: 6.5) have lost at least 11 games. While former Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell (20-32 record as starter) should help the offense improve a little bit, he may not be the right player to turn around the team's losing culture. Despite some talented players on the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders have finished in the bottom 10 in the league in total defense in each of the last two years. Oakland's losing way continue for an under in 2010.


NFL: Early Super Bowl Preview
2010-01-26

The Super Bowl matchup is set, with Indianapolis and New Orleans getting two weeks to prepare for their championship showdown in Miami. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have already weighed in on their thoughts, installing the Colts as 4-point opening line favorites. That number has since moved to 5.5-points, with Indy getting about 64% of the action according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a quick look at the backdrop surrounding Super Bowl XLIV and stick with Sportsbook.com from now till kickoff of the big game for more great coverage.

Peyton Manning survived an early knockout attempt by the Jets, guided the third-biggest comeback in AFC Championship Game history—11 points—and shredded Gang Green’s No. 1-ranked defense in the process. The NFL’s regular season Most Valuable Player threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory that ended far better than it started.

The Colts scored the game’s final 24 points and routinely made big plays against a New York defense that rarely allowed them through its first 18 games. Manning completed five throws of at least 20 yards and turned the tide with a four-play, 80-yard drive late in the second quarter that cut the 11-point deficit to just 17-13 at halftime. Head coach Rex Ryan’s team never recovered.

New Orleans proved to be equally resilient despite being dominated in almost every aspect of last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game by Minnesota, including total yards (475-257) and time of possession (36:49-27:56). The Saints squeaked by the Vikings, 31-28 in overtime, to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

Along with Manning, Super Bowl XLIV also features the runner-up in the NFL MVP race, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns and has added six more in two postseason victories. There are few differences between the two signal-callers, other than Manning’s overwhelming postseason experience. The Colts quarterback is now 3-2 in AFC title games (9-8 overall) and looks to win his second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.

Regardless of who’s in the huddle, the two quarterbacks never lack confidence in flinging the ball around. Against the Jets, Manning’s top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who each had at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, combined for seven grabs and 90 yards. So, he turned to second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, one touchdown) and rookie Austin Collie (7, 123, 1). Brees spread the ball around to eight different receivers, three of whom scored in the NFC title game.

The overall series between the teams is tied at 5-5, but the Colts have won the last two meetings, the most recent a 41-10 blowout in 2007.

PREDICTION
There’s no question Manning can keep up with Brees in a shootout. What is an issue is whether or not his defense can do enough to slow New Orleans down. The Colts knocked off a pair of run-oriented offenses (Ravens and Jets) in their first two playoff games, but the well-balanced Saints present a far bigger problem. NEW ORLEANS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 32